Wars of Opportunity

Percentage of Americans who support “the recognition of Taiwan as an independent nation”: 69%
Percentage of Taiwanese who say “Taiwan should declare independence as soon as possible”: 6.8%
Source

My first question would be: “Yay Democracy. But by whom and for whom …?”

My second question is for Nancy, and it’s basically: What the christfuck are you doing, woman?

Again, it’s not rhetorical. Everyone knows that her little junket is bugging the crap out of the Chinese. But can that possibly be the whole point? WHY are we going out of our way to piss them off? What good does it do? What benefit is there to you or me, or even to some tiny sliver of oligarchical elites in any country?

The only vaguely rational thing I’ve heard is that Tapei is home to the best, most advanced chips n’ semiconductors in the world, which isn’t any real answer, but at least approximates a possible rationale.

Maybe it’s that plus money?


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Okay … but that would mean that America isn’t for Americans anymore; that it’s a freaky puppet show run for the sole benefit of politicians and other rich people.

Is that worse than not being able to rationally explain it? Yes. Yes it is.

I’d almost rather be confused.

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So when China said earlier today that this provocation would result in a ‘targeted military response’ … what did they mean?

I have a theory for you, but first of all you have to let go of the half-ass pop-media idea that ‘Taiwan is an island’.

It’s actually dozens of islands. Most estimates say over 100. An exact single number is pretty much impossible to find, because of things like territorial disputes, rising sea levels, and the fact that nobody but the dullest of orthodox geographers can say for sure when a shoal becomes a rock, or a rock achieves the status of an island. All I can say for sure is that Pluto is a fucking planet whether they like it or not.

My singularly erudite opinions aside, some of the nominally Taiwanese islands form a chain called the Kinmen Archipelago.

Of particular interest is Great Kinmen. It is home to 130,000 human souls. It is just barely an island, separated from the mainland of the mighty Asian continent by only about a mile of water.

The people there feel much closer to the big China for the simple reason that they are closer. In practical terms, they would, for example, just love it if Beijing were to generously lay a mile of water pipe out to them … maybe a mile of sewer pipe running the other way, too.

So if I was a pissed-off Chinese president looking for the means to begin re-unifying Taiwan with the mothership, Great Kinmen Island is where I would start. Not with troops and bombs. Not with anger or pride at all. I’d say, hey Kinmen. How about a nice clean modern endless supply of drinking water? Maybe even a shiny new bridge? Just sign here and consider it done.

Take it over … democratically, without a single shot fired, and work your slow way out a hundred miles toward the big jewel of Formosa where Nancy’s plane landed. It might have to come down to shooting then, or … maybe the slow erosive effects of soft power will just begin to tip things in your favor.

China has a recent history of doing things this way all over the world, and it comes out looking pretty good for them when they do. Especially compared to the Empire that is busy blasting away at their own feet with both barrels, toes flying off left and right.

Twenty four bucks worth of beads for Manhattan, y’know?

Just promise me you’ll think about it, Xi.

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