Which is pretty shocking, but I think they asked the question kinda sideways.
As things stand right now, I’m all the way on the left, shocker, in the very likely camp personally.
But I still don’t think it "likely" that the Dems will actually run Biden in November.
Yes the polls are favoring him today, despite the one above. But there are also dire warnings being floated by ex-Obama insiders. There’s still Tara Reade’s allegations. There’s still Joe’s own brain being the toughest opponent he’s ever faced.
Also, this formulation doesn’t take into account the people who just won’t vote, regardless of their theoretical Likeliness To Consider. The people that sank Hillary last time, in the end.
Mark Cuban is floating the idea of a third party run now too. That would peel off a good chunk of the Bloomburger types on the left and the right.
I’m not either of those, though.
So my top three picks right now are Holden Caulfield, the Green pro wrestler, and god help us Justin Amash. Who I have always loved, for pushing a bill to defund the NSA, post-Snowden.
Which bill was killed by blue dog Dems, including one from here that I had voted for, and never will again, on that simple principle.